cashew | Oh, are we finally accepting the inevitable?

Foreign Policy published this argument recently:

Ariel Levite at Foreign Policy

Recall that I predicted the escalation towards nuclear confrontation back in March. I'll highlight the point I was making:

Before you start getting all "oh poor Ukraine", maybe remember that Ukraine is not in fact a part of NATO and if you keep shipping military arms to Ukraine, you might be starting a nuclear war with Russia, which is definitely bad for Ukrainians.

Next, I pointed out three days later that Ukrainians have already been fucked because a war started. I explicitly mentioned that there is no win state for Ukraine.

Why? Because, as the wisdom of my ancestors have pointed out, when you engage in war, you've already lost: 兵者，诡道也。故能而示之不能，用而示之不用... Which translates roughly to "Military force is a path of danger. It is better to have military capability that you do not need to use..." And yes, that includes when defending yourself from encroachment. If you can't dissuade the other side to not invade via diplomacy, you are already fucked and there is no win state. (The logic is simple, if you're militarily a super power, other countries wouldn't dare to invade. If you expand with that military power, the operation is doomed to fail.)

So yes, the sooner Ukraine accepts an uneasy, unfair peace, the faster they can rebuild and try to reclaim the lost territory through other means. Maintaining borders is in the interest of the ruling class, not in the interest of the regular citizens. That is not to say that it's not angering or humiliating to cede territory to invaders. Nor does it mean that this is in anyway just. But here's the truth: THE WORLD ISN'T JUST. And that's a tough pill to swallow. But you take the humiliation now, build yourself back up, and then, when you've pushed yourselves into a position of power, you leverage your power and take back the lost land.

If the U.S. foreign policy blob has its way, we're all going to sleep walk into a fucking nuclear confrontation. Again, I'm no expert, but it seems these foreign policy experts also have the same concerns.